Montrose, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

589
FXUS66 KLOX 240009
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
509 PM PDT Fri May 23 2025

.SYNOPSIS...23/919 AM.

Temperatures will fall each day through Saturday, with increasing
low clouds and fog. Sunday through mid next week, temperatures
will be slightly below normal for most areas and marine layer low
clouds and fog will continue.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-MON)...23/1229 PM.

Overall a very low impact weather pattern the next several days.
Another upper low will be moving through the area tonight and
Saturday which will deepen the marine layer and delay the typical
morning clearing by a few hours on Saturday. This will in turn
result in cooler afternoon highs as well with most areas in the
mid 60s to mid 70s. This is about 5 degrees below normal. The
stratus has cleared most areas this afternoon but clouds will fill
in overnight with a later burnoff time Saturday. Some breezy
northwest winds expected across southwest Santa Barbara County
this evening.

A few degrees of warming is likely on Sunday, mainly inland as
the trough is replaced by a quick little pop up ridge. Onshore
flow remains quite strong though so cool air off the ocean will
keep areas closer to the coast on the cooler side.

Then Monday another weak upper low arrives which will bring cooler
temps and longer lasting marine layer to coast and valleys.
a

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...23/1238 PM.

For most of next week just very minor day to day changes in
temperatures with a steady dose of night and morning low clouds
and fog for coast and valleys. Overall very typical weather for
this time of year except highs a few degrees cooler than normal.

There remains the potential for a significant warming trend late
next week into early June, as some forecast models show a
moderately strong high pressure system building over the Arizona-
Nevada region. The presence of a slowly moving cut off low may
keep this a low confidence forecast well into next week.

&&

.AVIATION...24/0008Z.

At 2355Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 2000 feet deep. The top of
the inversion was around 2500 feet with a temperature of 15 C.

High confidence in TAFs for KPMD and KWJF.

Fairly high probability in MVFR cigs reaching KLAX, KLGB, KSMO,
KBUR, and KVNY as marine layer deepens over LA county, but
timing of onset could be +/- 2 hours from what is currently
indicated in TAFs. For KOXR and KCMA, there is a 60% chance of
MVFR cigs developing later tonight, but only 30% chance of
reaching KSBA. There is also a 30-40% chance of IFR cigs
at KSBP and KSMX overnight. Some MVFR cigs could linger
into Saturday afternoon across immediate coastal areas,
especially Ventura County.

KLAX...SCT-BKN015-020 conditions through early evening. Then
moderate to high confidence in 00Z TAF. High confidence for MVFR
cigs to develop overnight but only moderate confidence in timing
which could be +/- 2 hours from current TAF forecast. Increased
confidence in east wind component reaching 7-8 knots from 08z-17z
Saturday, with a 20% chance of reaching 10 knots.

KBUR...Moderate to high confidence in 00Z TAF. High confidence
in MVFR cigs reaching KBUR late tonight into early Saturday
morning, with a 20% chance of IFR conditions. Moderate confidence
in timing of cigs, which could be +/- 2 hours from current
TAF.

&&

.MARINE...23/1235 PM.

For the Outer Waters, high confidence in Small Craft Advisory
(SCA) level winds through Memorial Day weekend. GALE force wind
gusts are possible to likely for NE portions of PZZ670, and across
the waters around and near Point Conception and Northern Channel
Islands (NCI) - this afternoon and evening. GALES may linger into
the late night hours around the NCI. In general, seas are expected
to remain below SCA criteria through mid-week - however, there
could be localized SCA level seas at times.

For the northern Inner Waters, SCA winds are expected to continue
into late tonight, with a 60% chance of GALE force gusts this
afternoon and evening. Over Memorial Day weekend, moderate
confidence in SCA winds each afternoon through evening. Seas are
expected to remain below SCA levels through mid-week.

For the Santa Barbara Channel, SCA winds will be more widespread
this afternoon through late tonight, reaching eastern portions of
the zone including the Ventura County coastline with a 10% chance
of GALE force wind gusts in the western portion of the Channel.
There is a moderate chance for SCA level winds across the western
portion of the Channel each afternoon and evening over the
remainder of Memorial Day Weekend - Also, there is a low chance
for eastern portions, with Sat and Mon having the best potential.
Seas are expected to remain below SCA level through Mid-week.

For the Inner Waters off the Los Angeles and Orange County coasts,
moderate confidence in conditions remaining below advisory levels
this weekend. However, there is a 20-40% chance for local gusts
up to 25 kt to occur each afternoon through evening today through
Monday near Malibu, through the San Pedro Channel, and in the far
western portion of the zone, with the highest chances today.
Seas are expected to remain below SCA level through Mid- week.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Wind Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Saturday for zones
      349-351. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Beach Hazards Statement in effect from Saturday morning
      through late Monday night for zones 354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...Gale Warning in effect until 9 PM PDT this evening for zones
      645-670. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Saturday for
      zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Gale Warning in effect until 3 AM PDT Saturday for zones
      673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/MW/Schoenfeld
AVIATION...Gomberg
MARINE...Black/Lewis
SYNOPSIS...Schoenfeld

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox